Yo, I don’t think we should talk about this
Come on, why not?
People might misunderstand what we’re tryin’ to say, you know?
No, but that’s a part of life
It keeps coming up anyhow
Don’t decoy, avoid, or make void the topic
Cuz that ain’t gonna stop it
Ok readers, enough about beer, kids, and sunflowers, summer is over and it’s time to get down to business. And nothing means business more in LIC than real estate. And nothing has a greater impact in LIC real estate than rental rates, as the overwhelming majority of Long Island City residents are renters.
The first six months of 2013 brought a lot of local business and real estate press screaming about big rental increases in the five boroughs. We linked to many of these stories, and even headlined our own back in early July: Free Beer, Expensive Rents, based on all these stories. More importantly, we heard numerous personal anecdotes directly from people in LIC, confirming significant increases. Several of these people even decided to move due to them, either out of LIC altogether, or to less expensive local digs.
Well guess what we’re hearing right now? A big reversal in this trend. Last month, a renter in a TF Cornerstone building told us they received a zero percent increase year-over-year. Timing is everything, and rental rates are volatile and quickly adjusted due to new computer software used by all the big landlords to optimize their yield. Yet we here at LICtalk cannot help but give ourselves a big slap on the back for our prediction way back in January:
“Everywhere I look I see lots of buildings going up, and every one of these buildings is slated to be a rental. Even the fallen crane on Center Boulevard has been fully dissected, so construction should resume shortly.
Thus I expect local rents to stay flat in 2013!”
And since I got it so right the first time, I’ll give myself another plaudit from the past:
Lots of news outlets can tell you what has happened, here at LICtalk we go one step beyond and give you a prediction about the future of residential real estate in Long Island City.
We would like to get your feedback on the trend in Long Island City rents. We would greatly appreciate your posting in the Comments section your 2013 rent renewal experience. Thank you, The Editor.
Surprise! No Rent Increases – “when we gaze at behemoth rental towers that offer perks like full-time doormen, health clubs and live-in supers, those annual rent increases seem as inevitable as a roof-deck misting station. But that may just not be true.” Well it took the NY Times until late August, while we here at LICtalk went out on a limb back in January.
“Rental renewal rates are proprietary to landlords and nearly impossible to track.” Please help us develop a local database by responding in the “comments” section.
When Apartment Rents Climb, Landlords Can Say ‘The Computer Did It’ – you see, Hal is evil
Savanna Eyes LIC’s Signature Signature Skyscraper – aka The Citibank Building. Once again, this will have zero effect on LIC. It’s almost become like flipping 1000 shares of Microsoft.
Farewell 5Pointz, Visit While You Still Can – another in a long line of au revoirs
Hunters Point Library Might Be Delayed Due to Budget Constraints – once again this project might get pushed out, this time because it wasn’t budgeted correctly
Local LIC Business, Aereo, Could Be Going to the Supreme Court – gotta root for the hometown guy!
Waterfront and Airport Buses Rolled Out – you can now catch a direct bus to La Guardia of the 7 train! Oh, and get to Costco by bus too.
LIC’s Shady Park Reopens After Sandy Repairs – no, it opened 2 weeks ago to kids. Friday the adults got to yuk it up.
LIC Queens Gets Second Bite of the Local Apple – about our new green market on Vernon
Bea says
September 9, 2013 at 5:07 pmWas just chatting about this on the playground w/ another TFC fellow-tenant. Seems to be a trend, so you deserve to pat yourself on the back. Ours does not renew until January, so I’ll let you know then, but past 3 years have been fair, low-single digit increases. I do believe it varies though by apartment size. We and the examples I site are all 2Bed/2Baths. I don’t know of any 1Beds. Anyway – good predicting LIC Talk!
kc says
September 9, 2013 at 5:51 pmI am so fed up with fighting over Avalon North about their ridiculous rent increases that we are moving out when our lease expires next spring. In three years, we have gone from $2400 to $3000 for a 670 sq ft 1 bedroom. And that’s AFTER negotiation from us! (They tried to raise us to over $3100 this year.) I like the nabe, so if Bea is right about the more reasonable increases over at the TFC, maybe we’ll check those buildings out.
LIC? says
September 9, 2013 at 8:57 pmAgreed, Avalon North’s computer software must have a glitch or something as the turnover here has been tremendous. I barely recognize anyone anymore and am really wondering what they have in store for me next month.
JH says
September 9, 2013 at 9:05 pmRenewed at 4720 in August. 0% increase.
sprsl says
September 9, 2013 at 9:06 pm1 br, 638 sqft 12th floor apt in TFC building stayed the same at $2510 when lease was renewed in July.
R.E. Guy says
September 9, 2013 at 10:39 pmWhat a great idea! Full transparency in the neighborhood so you don’t have to slog through every building doing a comparison shop.
LIC4evr says
September 10, 2013 at 8:34 amI’ll do you all one better. I recently renewed my 2-bedroom in a TF Cornerstone building, got a zero percent increase, plus they took $1,000 off my first month!
Ro says
September 10, 2013 at 9:17 amUnfortunately, I think these rent breaks will only last until the new buildings are fully leased-up. These discounts are only happening because most new buildings give a free month to speed up their absorption and stabilize their property as soon as possible. Once all these market rate buildings are leased-up and if the NYC market is still strong the rents will continue their upward trend. Remember LIC still has room for rent growth. Williamsburg’s high-rise and some low-rise buildings are getting $50 to $60/sf/year. LIC’s high-rise buildings are getting $40 to $50/sq/year.
The Wizard of LIC says
September 10, 2013 at 11:05 amIt’s not surprising that Avalon is behind the 8-ball on rental rates. No matter how good the software is, it requires good inputs. As the local guy in the LIC market, and also NYC-wide, TF Cornerstone is much more attuned to what is happening on a real time basis in this specific market, and thus ahead of the curve. Probably having a private owner helps them as well.
Big Rav says
September 10, 2013 at 1:42 pmI live in a 850 SF One Bedroom in Avalon North with a 950 SF deck.
I renewed in December 2012 with a 4% increase. Unfortunately, due to the nature of my water view, it is a take it or leave deal with Avalon North. I guess it could be worse.
I believe with more inventory becoming available monthly (TF & Maxmillian, etc), the rents will remain constant until the demand can overtake the market.
Avalon, TF and Rockrose all use sophisticated software to determine rental rates and they all price to rent not wait for a renter.
mike says
September 13, 2013 at 7:03 amhave heard horror stories regarding avalon and renewals and move in-outs
that is why i live in a tf property
N says
September 13, 2013 at 3:01 pm4.5% increase on a 1-year lease, in my small converted garage building on Vernon. Received notice in July but lease doesn’t begin until December.
RK says
September 14, 2013 at 1:28 pmI renewed at 4540 for 2 yrs at a 2% increase. I have an apt with unobstructed views with a balcony. It’s literally a million dollar view. I can understand why there was no increase at 4720. Those apartments are much older with no open floor plan and the kitchens have very old cabinetry. Not my style. To each his own. I do feel that rents will go down with all the new inventory opening up. Tfc is already offering a 1000 move in credit and 1000 deposit.