Tag Archives: Plaxall

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

Which side of the Basin?

WHAT if Amazon did an about face and bid adieu to locating HQ2 in Long Island City, stating that the rancor over subsidies, additional demands, and outright opposition to gentrification made it untenable.  How would that make you feel? Continue reading

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AMAZON HQ2 IN LONG ISLAND CITY, GOOD DEAL OR NOT?

Reactionary? Yes. misguided maybe, redirected for sure

Reactionary? Yes. Misguided? Maybe. Redirected? For sure

Since it cost a lot to win
And even more to lose
You and me bound to spend some time
Wondering what to choose

I have read the 32-page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Amazon and NYC/NYS.  I have read most of what others have written on the HQ2 deal and incentives. I am a financial analyst by training.  Most importantly, I have lived in Long Island City for ten years and have closely tracked all that goes on here, both economically and non.  Despite all these attributes Continue reading

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MIGHT AMAZON HQ2 OCCUPY THE PLAXALL SITE?

First let me state that every detail about Amazon’s locating half of their HQ2 in Long Island City is purely conjecture, including the possibility of their actually coming here, which Vegas currently handicaps at 1:4. Thus as much as I want to share more of my opinions on what, for better or worse, will be the most transformational news to effect LIC, I will hold my tongue until any official announcement. Because the devil is in the details.

Nevertheless considering the high probability (1:4 = Yes, not 4:1), I will entertain and analyze a rumor, even if it turns out to be a meaningless exercise – or completely wrong. That rumor is that Amazon will locate their headquarters on the Plaxall/Water’s Edge land – a possibility which has been mentioned in several articles, without any serious validation to my eye.

Anyway, there would be two major positives for Amazon to choose this site, and one major negative, plus a whole bunch of minor +/-’s that I won’t bother fleshing out here. Positive number one is that it will allow the company to build a campus from the ground up, tailored to what they need in terms of amenities and aesthetics for attracting today’s white collar workers. Positive number two is the free advertising given the full visibility of the waterfront by both everyone in Manhattan and all the tourists – whether they be on the ferry, Circle Line, or even viewing on TV. It’s a headquarters and a showcase. The big negative? It’s not really near a subway line. Everyone who works there would have to trudge 7-9 blocks through Hunters Point if they arrive by subway, or add a mini-leg to their commute via shuttle-buses.

Food for thought, and while we’re on that topic, here are some non-Amazon LIC links:

Adda’s Canteen Style DishesThe New Yorker pays homage to our new local Indian restaurant

Bryce Harper Moves Into a Long Island City Apartment Building Where 4 Mets Currently Livewouldn’t it be cruel if he signed w/ the Yankees?

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PREDICTIONS, RUMORS, THOUGHTS ON AMAZON HQ2 IN LIC

Two weeks ago I drafted a post on local property values in response to the headlines announcing LIC’s first billion dollar condo building. It questioned the viability of attaining $1 bil in an increasingly softening market. The Amazon HQ2 announcement blew that thesis out of the water. It’s a game-changer so back to the drawing board I went with some new real estate predictions, and while I was at it some other thoughts I had on HQ2 as well as some rumors.

Upon confirmation, raw land prices and development sites are immediately worth 25-75%1 more. Because all other costs (labor, materials, financing, etc.) are fixed, this is the only variable that moves so the total project only increases by 5-15%. This is obviously a huge boon for current land-owners.
Retail – 3+ yrs away before any impact on revenues for local retailers but all retail rent rollovers will incorporate an Amazon Premium, especially those near where HQ2 is actually located
Rental Building Owners – the announcement fully counters the current softness as far as refinancing goes. Owners can now do so using peak 2016-17 pricing
Renters – zero effect for the next 2-3 years. If softness persists, as it should with all the supply, concessions will increase but posted rent levels will stay flat. Then when Amazon starts moving in the concessions will disappear.
Homeowners – the effects will not be so immediate, but prices in LIC should firm 5-10% over the next 12 months. Going forward they will do 2-4% a year better than other NYC neighborhoods for the next five years.

For those looking to make a personal investment, if HQ2 is placed in Court Square or Queens Plaza, I believe the highest expected return going forward will be in Astoria and Sunnyside. It will be slightly less so in Greenpoint (but all those new developments just got a big lift), unless HQ2 is placed in Hunters Point. IF YOU WANT TO SCORE A BARGAIN START LOOKING NOW, and be ready to place a bid once confirmation comes.

As for where HQ2 will be located, that’s complete speculation at this point. One name thrown out for a turnkey foothold, is the Citi building where Citicorp’s departure in 2020 will open up one million square feet.

Or, if Amazon wanted to build a quasi-campus from the ground up, there are numerous parcels in Court Square/Queens Plaza that could be rezoned/repositioned and the multiple subway lines that merge there make it a logical choice.

Finally, there is a rumor that the Plaxall property on the waterfront would be a very attractive option, which when grouped with Water’s Edge and Vernon Swamp is where Amazon could build its own version of Hudson Yards on a highly visible (and large) piece of land…

Thoughts – now that the bake-off is seemingly over, I find it interesting that Amazon decided to completely discard the lower cost-of-living factor in choosing DC and NYC. While some think the whole exercise was a sham and the fix was in, I believe Amazon came to the conclusion they needed world class talent to grow going forward. For all that can be said about cities like Dallas and Atlanta, when you wake up in the morning you’re still in Dallas or Atlanta, not NYC.

The details about the deal the city/state struck with Amazon have yet to be revealed, and until they are I hesitate to give the company’s arrival my endorsement – this could be another instance of Foxconn in Wisconsin whereby the state basically paid for the factory and subsidized the workers to have it located there 2. Nevertheless this decision has the chance to be very favorable for both the company and Long Island City, not to mention NYC.

Yes, there will be collateral damage as it won’t be as affordable as before and there will be some really big winners who just won the lottery (the aforementioned land owners). As for crowding – particularly in the subways, an issue that I have been highly critical about, by placing the workers in LIC as opposed to Manhattan, it will fill the empty subway cars deadheading back to Flushing in the morning and Hudson Yards in the evening. Or better yet, commuters can easily walk or bike to work.

If the deal is struck and it’s reasonable, it will cement Long Island City’s standing as the best place to live (and work) in the best city in the world. And I guess that’s what Amazon thought too.

  1. completely back of the envelope so went with huge range, just wanted to emphasize who had the most to gain []
  2. or in LIC’s case guaranteed Sunnyside Yards be decked over or other egregious zoning upsizing []
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THE DIRTY LITTLE SECRET OF HUNTERS POINT

Despite the delays and cost overruns at the Hunters Point Library, I personally like it. I know that not everyone in the neighborhood shares my sentiment, some thinking it an overpriced folly and others questioning the need for any new libraries in the 21st century.  But grand projects that may come across as impractical or wasteful at onset, can sometimes transcend their original purpose, as well as transform a neighborhood if the conceptualization of it is on target.  Though we won’t really know for another year about the final outcome, I’m optimistic that the decision to build it will be proven correct.

Yet underlying the creation of the Hunters Point Library, is a dirty little secret: Continue reading

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LIC JUST SAY NO TO THE COMPANY HOLIDAY PARTY & DO THIS

God Bless Ye Merry Gentlemen

God Bless Ye Merry Gentlemen

Company holiday parties are fraught with danger.  Making a drunken fool of oneself in front of people you see Mon-Fri from 9-5 for the next 365, telling your superior what you really think of her, not to mention the possibility of infidelity, rejection, and in 2017 sexual harassment.  Handicapping the company holiday party as a prospective investment, which in some ways it is, there is no upside, other than free drinks and food, and massive downside.  So as your adviser1, I recommend Continue reading

  1. spiritual, not financial []
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PLAXALL’S GRAND(E) PLAN FOR ANABLE BASIN & REC CENTER

Last night I met with several of the Plaxall family members where they shared their just released plans to develop Anable Basin.  These plans entail a major rezoning of the area, whose central theme is “bringing LIC to Anable Basin” by opening up the shoreline surrounding it to the public and making it easily accessible via newly created pedestrian lanes that would slice through their current plots. The initial blueprint would be a mix of residential, retail, and a doubling of their current industrial space, in the hope of making the area one that’s 24/7 instead of the stark division currently in LIC where an area is utilized by business during the day or inhabitants at night, but not both.  Also a new school would be built away from the site on a nearby Plaxall holding on 11th Street.

To help put it all together the family recently hired Jonathan Drescher, previously  the Director of Major Projects for the Durst Organization, who expects the zoning process to take most of 2018 with the hope that the initial phase begins in 2019.  As one would expect with his arrival, the plan also contains the considerable upsizing of the amount of buildable square footage that would be allowed, leading to the possibility of a 70-story waterfront tower and 5,000 new residential units.  It would also incorporate many of the development buzzwords coursing through City Hall these days: Continue reading

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THE NUDGER FROM QUEENSBRIDGE

The Kids Are Alright

The Kids Are Alright

 

‘We’re on one side of the river and the millionaires are on the other, but we have the better view.’ Elizabeth McQueen, Queensbridge

Stories about Queensbridge are infrequent here on LICtalk, and positive stories about it are practically nil.  This weekend though, The New York Times wrote a very inspirational profile on Elizabeth McQueen, a former resident of the houses who spent many years nudging politicians and parks employees to refurbish and re-buttress the long-closed esplanade in Queensbridge Park.  Though she passed away in February at the age of 83, she was able to witness her accomplishment with the re-opening of the esplanade in 2014.  In light of all that she did to make it happen, this week it was officially declared “Elizabeth McQueen Way” by the city.

Now I can’t say that you’ll have anything named after you, but Continue reading

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