Real Estate

SINCE shortly after the pandemic began in the U.S., the mass media has gorged on the supposed city to suburbs migration angle. I say supposed because there are a number of complicating factors and spotty data making it difficult to discern whether it’s a torrent or a trickle. Every year there is a migration of some for the burbs, with the bulk of that bell curve moving when school lets out in the summer. This year you also had some that pulled forward that decision, which should create a vacuum in years hence under ‘normal’ circumstances. The additional demand from that ‘pull forward’ is probably enough to lead to bidding ‘insanity’ as described in the NYT title below (link). That’s because unlike toilet paper there’s no way to instantaneously increase supply, which is made more acute (and drawn out) given the strict zoning in NYC suburbs, especially versus say Dallas. Once you net out the two sets above, I think the absolute numbers of those leaving NYC and buying a home1 in the NYC suburbs is smaller than the hype, if solely because of the incremental supply issues. 2

1. or even renting [↩]
2. the way new supply comes on in the suburbs is people list their home at aspirational prices – come and take me! [↩]